Is a housing crash coming to Southern Oregon in 2025?

The housing market in Southern Oregon has been on a wild ride over the past few years. From record-high home prices during the pandemic to rising mortgage rates and shifting buyer demand in 2024, many residents are now asking the big question:

Is a housing crash coming to Southern Oregon in 2025?

We asked real estate experts, economists, and local agents for their take—and here’s what they had to say.

What’s triggering talk of a housing crash?

Several national and local factors are fueling fears of a housing downturn:

High Mortgage Rates: With rates hovering between 6% and 7% in early 2025, affordability has taken a hit. Buyers are more cautious, and sellers are reluctant to give up their low-interest mortgages.
Price Corrections: After steep pandemic-era gains, prices in some parts of Southern Oregon—like Medford and Grants Pass—have stabilized or declined slightly.
Longer Days on the Market: Homes are sitting longer than they did in 2021–2022, prompting speculation about a bubble popping.

But is a crash really on the horizon?

What the Experts Say

“This Isn’t 2008” – Local Appraiser

“We’re seeing softening, not collapse. Unlike 2008, today’s homeowners have equity, strong credit, and fixed-rate mortgages. We don’t have the same toxic lending that caused the last crash.”

— Tom R., Certified Appraiser in Jackson County

“Supply Is Still Tight” – Broker Perspective

“There’s no surge of foreclosures or overbuilding here. In fact, inventory in Ashland and Talent is still below pre-pandemic levels. That scarcity is keeping prices relatively stable.”

— Sarah M., Principal Broker, Medford

“Rural Demand Remains Strong” – Land Specialist

“People are still leaving cities and looking for rural life—especially around Applegate, Jacksonville, and Rogue River. Lifestyle buyers aren’t as rate-sensitive, so we’re not seeing a collapse in demand there.”

— Lucas B., Rural Property Expert

Key Market Indicators in Southern Oregon (May 2025)

Metric Jackson County Josephine County

Median Home Price $410,000 (↓ 3.5% YoY) $370,000 (↓ 2.1% YoY)

Inventory Up 15% from 2024 Up 12% from 2024

Average Days on Market 44-52

Foreclosure Activity Stable, below 1% Stable, below 1%

So… Housing Crash or Correction?

Most local experts agree: Southern Oregon is experiencing a market correction, not a crash. That means:

-Home prices may dip slightly or flatten

-Homes may take longer to sell

-But a significant collapse in values is unlikely

The fundamentals—limited supply, lifestyle-driven demand, and substantial owner equity—hold the market steady.

What This Means for You

Buyers:

You may find better deals than during the pandemic boom.
Negotiation power is improving—but expect competition on quality listings.
Focus on long-term value, not timing the market.

Sellers:

Price realistically. The days of aggressive overpricing are gone.
Staging, marketing, and condition matter more than ever.
If you don’t need to sell, it may still be worth holding until rates ease.

Talk to a Local Expert

Whether buying, selling, or just watching the market, navigating this changing landscape takes real insight. Reach out to me today for a personalized look at how these trends affect your neighborhood or property.

Chris Pfau-

(458)220-8881
chrisrealtorpro@gmail.com
chrisrealtorpro.com